Trump orders blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers, but war unlikely

By Gwynne Dyer

United States President Donald Trump has ordered “a total and complete” blockade of all “sanctioned” oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuelan ports, a move that some analysts say amounts to an act of war.

Trump has a history of threatening military action against Venezuela. Former U.S. National Security adviser John Bolton reported that during Trump’s first presidential term, the president said invading Venezuela would be “cool” because it is “really part of the United States.”

Gustavo Petro, the current president of Colombia, said his predecessor, Iván Duque, was approached by Trump in 2020 with a plan to invade Venezuela via Colombia. U.S. troops would have landed in Santa Marta and marched across the border, Petro said. Trump’s advisors ultimately talked him out of the plan.

Trump is widely known for his bluster, and analysts note that he rarely acts on his threats. There are not enough American troops in the Caribbean region to make a full-scale invasion of Venezuela feasible, they say. Trump is also politically averse to wars, having promised his MAGA base “no more forever wars” in foreign conflicts. He is known for echoing the views of those around him, but it would take exceptional persuasion to convince him to go against his own instincts.

The blockade alone is unlikely to bring down Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. While cutting oil income could hurt the regime, Venezuela’s oil production has already collapsed to less than one million barrels per day due to domestic mismanagement. Years of corruption and incompetence have left the country’s economy fragile, and many Venezuelans have grown accustomed to economic hardship.

Venezuela is also unlikely to provoke a U.S. invasion by trying to break the blockade. Frustration may rise on both sides, but analysts say major violence is unlikely unless a senior figure in the Trump administration acts independently or without oversight.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has repeatedly criticized the governments of Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba, calling them “enemies of humanity.” He made the statement in Costa Rica earlier this year to underline Nicaragua’s proximity, but he often emphasizes this view wherever he travels.

Rubio, a second-generation Cuban-American, has long focused on overthrowing Communist regimes in the region. His parents emigrated to Miami in the mid-1950s before Fidel Castro came to power, and like many Cuban-Americans, Rubio’s politics have been shaped by that experience. Overturning these regimes has been a defining goal of his career.

As a Florida senator, Rubio had access to Trump and recognized him as a potential instrument to advance his agenda. After becoming secretary of state in January, he gained significant influence over U.S. foreign policy, particularly in the Western Hemisphere. That influence has contributed to the U.S. focus on Venezuela, a country that rarely features at the top of global strategic priorities.

Some U.S. strategists argue that Venezuela is key to Cuba and that regime change in Caracas could lead to change in Havana. Analysts dismiss this argument as unrealistic. The Cuban revolution survived the collapse of the Soviet Union and remains resilient despite decades of U.S. sanctions. Any change in Venezuela is unlikely to destabilize Cuba.

Still, Rubio’s focus on the region, combined with Trump’s unpredictable approach, raises the risk of prolonged U.S. involvement in Venezuela. Analysts caution that unless Trump keeps hawkish advisors in check, tensions could escalate into a longer-term confrontation.

While the blockade increases pressure on the Maduro government, U.S. officials must weigh the economic and political consequences carefully. Venezuela’s economy is already struggling under domestic mismanagement, and further pressure could worsen humanitarian conditions. At the same time, the administration must avoid steps that could be interpreted as a provocation or trigger a military conflict.

In short, while the Trump administration’s blockade is a serious escalation, experts say the risk of full-scale war remains low. Venezuela’s weakened oil industry and political resilience, combined with Trump’s reluctance to engage in foreign conflicts, suggest that the situation, though tense, is unlikely to spiral into open hostilities in the near term.