Denmark inspects ships in Baltic strait amid fears of Russian shadow fleet

By Gwynne Dyer
International Opinion

In the 16th and 17th centuries, two-thirds of the Danish kingdom’s income came from taxes on ships passing through the Øresund strait, the only exit from the Baltic Sea.

Ships had to declare the value of their cargo. If Danish authorities suspected the value was understated, they could buy the entire cargo at the declared price.

Denmark no longer enforces that rule, but officials still take maritime violations seriously. The country’s airports were forced to shut down several times late last month after unidentified drones were spotted, prompting Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen to say Russian involvement could not be ruled out.

The warnings were timely: Russian drones also violated Polish and Romanian airspace that week. Frederiksen’s government suspected the drones harassing Denmark were operating from a Russian-chartered ship off the Danish coast.

Last week, Royal Danish Navy vessels began stopping and inspecting ships in the Øresund strait. The focus is on older oil tankers flying “flags of convenience” from low-regulation countries. These ships are part of the so-called “shadow fleet” that transports sanctioned Russian oil to Asia, including India and China.

Fossil fuel sales provide 30 to 50 per cent of Russia’s government revenue, and two-thirds of its oil and gas is exported. Most exports used to go to Europe until the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Western sanctions forced Russia to cut prices and find new buyers in Asia.

Russia has few pipelines to Asia, and most oil now travels by sea—about 14,000 nautical miles from Kaliningrad in the Baltic to Qingdao, China. Sanctions also make it difficult to charter ships or obtain insurance legally. Russia has responded with a “shadow fleet” of roughly 1,000 older tankers, many near the end of their service lives.

The approach is expensive and risky, but until recently, Russian oil exports remained relatively steady. Lower prices reduced revenue, but Russia still funded its war effort and maintained domestic stability.

Denmark’s inspections target safety and environmental concerns. “These old ships pose a particular risk to our marine environment. That’s why we are tightening controls with very basic environmental rules,” Environment Minister Magnus Heunicke said. In practice, the rules allow inspectors to examine documents, note safety or insurance violations, and delay or detain ships.

Denmark has limited resources, so not every ship in the shadow fleet is stopped. However, the number of inspections is expected to rise. New U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies may also affect operations.

Meanwhile, Russia’s main oil terminals are increasingly vulnerable. Ukraine’s new Flamingo missiles can reach the Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk terminals. The weapons are less precise than U.S. Tomahawks but carry larger warheads and can be produced in high volumes, potentially overwhelming Russian air defences.

Ukrainian strikes on pipelines and refineries have already caused fuel shortages in Russia. The new tactics could further disrupt the Russian economy. While no single weapon can decide a war of attrition, the strategic balance appears to be shifting in Ukraine’s favour.